ApeCoin (APE): Why a Move to $4 Remains Possible Despite 43% 2-Week Drop
- The market structure remained massively bearish.
- Despite that, the upcoming days might witness price bounces.
ApeCoin traversed downside trends since August’s early sessions when the alternative token suffered ejection from the hurdle at $7.7. $4.17 & $3.18 have acted as crucial supports since June. Bitcoin didn’t show much momentum on its price charts either.
Remember, the APE-BTC correlation stands at +0.97. In that context, APE may lack the strength to record an upside bounce unless Bitcoin shows upward momentum.
Near-Term Bullishness Might Prevail but
The daily chart shows APE printed a bullish block on September 6. That had the alternative token tested the support at $4.17 on two distinct occasions (October 20 and November 2. Alongside the September 16 $4.61 test, this bullish block witnessed the price respond positively. Yet, APE bulls could not stay strong forever.
Bullishness weakened on November 8 as the FTX crisis emerged. The events triggered downtrends, with APE plummeting to print a swing low near $2.618. Thus, the previous bullish block could have turned into a bearish breaker.
Analysts plotted FIB retracements based on ApeCoin’s plunge to $2.618 from $5.25. the 61.8% & $78.6% retracement areas lay at $4.24 & $4.68, respectively, and boasted a confluence with the mentioned breaker.
The CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) remained beneath -0.05 on its 24hr chart since September late sessions, showing substantial cash flow from the system. The OBV (on-balance volume) maintained downtrends. Moreover, the indicators flashed massive selling momentum within the market.
Also, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) swayed below the 50-neutral during this period, highlighting bearish pressure. The alt will hardly record an upside move considering this selling. Nevertheless, bears might look for a lucrative R: R ‘shorting’ opportunity if APE surged to $4.2 – $4.6. Meanwhile, a 24hr closing beyond $4.8 would invalidate the short entry.
Weighted Sentiment Negative Amid APE’s Weak Performance
The weighted sentiment index plunged into the negative region since November early sessions. Also, ApeCoin’s social dominance remained low, apart from November 11. The dominance metric started to dip toward October end.
That indicated an ugly social media outlook for APE, an expected picture considering the token’s price action over the last three weeks. However, 24hr active addresses have witnessed a swift surge lately, though it may not mean bullish effects for ApeCoin in the short term.
Editorial credit: David Esser / shutterstock.com
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